Ageing Devon could face problems

Dementia could rise 52 per cent

Devon’s ageing population could be storing up problems for the future, with the growing number of retired people potentially creating major issues.

Analysis of the county’s current and future demographics shows retirees will continue to rise as a proportion of the working-age population.

More older people could mean that the county’s health services come under more stress, as health problems emerge as people age.

A report for Devon County Council shows that in the next 20 years, the number of adults aged over 65 in Devon will increase by 76,000.  The proportion of the population aged 75 and over will rise from 14 per cent now to nearly a fifth (18 per cent).

Coupled with this is a prediction that the birth-rate will also slow, meaning there will be fewer working age adults per older person.

Currently there are 2.21 working-age adults to one older person, but this is predicted to drop to 1.7 to one.

This rise in retired people means an estimated 52 per cent increase in dementia in the county by 2040 and a similar rise (49 per cent) in hospital falls.

Other issues include a potential 38 per cent rise in long-term illnesses, a 35 per cent rise in obesity, and the same rise in diabetes.

As such, the council is working to ensure Devon’s residents look after themselves better, and that health systems are better set up to support people.

Initiatives include the creation of a dementia strategy, and the upping of the council’s promotions to encourage people to stay physically, socially and mentally active.

Cllr Roger Croad (Conservative, Ivybridge) said the predicted shift in demographics would have a “detrimental effect on the prosperity of the county and its health.

“This report shows that with an ageing population, there will be a likely rise in health conditions which will impact demand on the local health and care system,” he said.

Cllr Carol Whitton (Labour, St David’s & Haven Banks) agreed the picture looks challenging, but is encouraged that the council is trying to help residents stay healthier.

“It seems that with the right interventions, we could have a real positive effect and face the prospect of hanging those quite scary possible outcomes to ensure our increasingly older population can live happy, fulfilling and productive lives well into their twilight years,” she said.