Devoncast - 'Wild' election could spring huge Devon surprises

'Safe' Tory seats are in play as country prepares to vote

The Conservatives could lose five seats in Devon when the country goes to the polls for the general election next month.

That’s according to political analyst Dr David Brockington, who says the latest polling data suggests an unprecedented shift in some of the county’s traditional Tory heartlands.

Dr Brockington, who lectures in politics at the University of Plymouth, speaks to Devoncast this week.

He says the Tories could lose their grip on five out of 12 Devon constituencies, with Central Devon and Plymouth Moor View going to Labour and the Liberal Democrats sweeping up North Devon, South Devon and Torbay.

Even some of the safest Conservatives seats could be at risk, with nationwide polls suggesting a huge win for Labour which could give them what pundits are calling a ‘supermajority’.

Conservative candidates argue that they are still confident of holding seats despite pressure from other parties including Reform UK, which is expected to pick up thousands of votes from disillusioned Tories.

And on a visit to Devon this week, former Conservative leader Lord Hague insisted that the election battle was far from over.

But Dr Brockington said the predictions were startling.

“For instance,” he said. “Torridge and Tavistock and South West Devon should be the two safest Conservative seats in all of Devon. They are two seats we shouldn’t even be having conversations about, and yet we are.”

He said the prospects for the general election on 4 July were ‘wild’, and added: “We know who is going to win. We just don’t know how badly the Conservatives are going to be beaten.

“The governing party is saying it is going to lose, and it’s saying to voters that it’s your job to vote for us so we don’t lose even worse!

“It really is wild.”

In Devon, he said, his only ‘sure bets’ were Labour wins in Exeter and in both Plymouth constituencies, but elsewhere seats with apparently safe Conservative majorities from the last election could also fall.

“These are bizarre conversations to even be having,” he said.

Devoncast is produced by Radio Exe and Devon's Local Democracy Reporting Service. It is available as a podcast and on Devoncast Radio on DAB across most of the county.